Thomas Neuman

Monday, June 1. 2009

Obama's Middle East/The Bad News And The Good News

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The good news is that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and perhaps some of the Gulf States will be willing to come to the table without being tied to Palestinian approval.

On June 4 President Obama is scheduled to give a much promoted presentation from Cairo. It is intended to be a major statement of reconciliation to the Islamic world outlining in greater detail his plans and visions for American engagement in the region. Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have clearly been consulted and have signed off on Obama's speech.

Given all the ballyhoo, staging and publicity leading up to the address something dramatic and significant needs to be said otherwise the President will look foolish. I believe he had hoped to kick start a peace process by announcing that Israel would freeze its settlement program including not allowing for natural growth.

Netanyahu has already resisted the intensive pressure to freeze settlements and was right to do so as long as the Palestinians refuse to recognize the State, Nation and people of Israel and refuse to end terrorism. This, not settlements, must logically be the first items in negotiations between Palestinians and Israel.

Two things are for certain one is Obama will base all his comments on a two state solution and the other is he will be making the case for a comprehensive negotiation which can be both good and bad.

In his pursuit of a two state solution Obama will be joined by the United Nations, the heads of all European states, the Pope, almost all of the mainline Protestant churches,(not however the fundamentalist churches) the major papers throughout the world, including the New York Times, the Washington Post ,the Los Angeles Times, and most of the major dailys, a significant percentage of Israel's population, a significant percentage of the American people, Kadimah and the Labor party in Israel, both the Democratic and Republican Party Platform, the Arab League, a large segment of the Jewish community, Russia and China.

Netanyahu can also be considered willing to accept a two state solution with full autonomy for the Palestinians as long as they are totally demilitarized and will not be free to engage in foreign policy initiatives that could result in dangerous military arrangement and treaties. It is a condition that, despite its logic, no one is willing to entertain.

Without the traditional backing of the United States the pressure to make dangerous concessions will be great.

But the Obama presentation will be more comprehensive it will be some combination of the Saudi plan, the Arab League plan and the road map. In essence it will call for full recognition of Israel as a nation with defensible borders as defined by someone other than Israel, the division of Jerusalem with internationalization of the holy sites, Israeli withdrawal from most of the West bank, the return of the Golan Heights, and those who will claim the right of return will be compensated financially from Arab coffers. All of his vision probably won't be spelled out in full detail on June 4.

The good news is that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and perhaps some of the Gulf States will be willing to come to the table without being tied to Palestinian approval. In other words it will not be the historic whatever "yassir wants"approach.

The bad news is that Obama will try to force Israel to make serious territorial concessions that threaten her security for rhetorical commitments that can be reversed on the turn of a dime. The Arabs are notorious for making unfulfilled commitments among themselves. Without the Golan Heights and West Bank Israel is physically maimed and without Jerusalem she is spiritually maimed.

The big question remains : with Netanyahu's Churchill like firm commitment to Israel's security and a one-state solution, and Obama's equally firm Chamberlain-like approach to international affairs including a two-state solution, is a US Israel confrontation inevitable?

June 4 we will know more, but from all indicators the answer is probably yes.

Thomas Neumann is the Executive Director of JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs)

© Thomas Neuman & JINSA, 2009

Keywords: arabs, egypt, islam, israel, middle east, palestinians, saudi arabia, usa

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